Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2748 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2748 SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2748 United Flight history →	SEA 05:00	IAH 11:21	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 07:05	IAH 13:31	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
UA 2293 United Flight history →	SEA 11:55	IAH 18:35	19%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 2379 United Flight history →	SEA 23:49	IAH 06:10	19%	4%	0.8%	84%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	SEA 17:00	IAH 23:26	19%	6%	0.7%	84%
AS 398 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:57	IAH 06:20	26%	4%	0.8%	82%
AS 1573 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:33	IAH 23:59	31%	7%	0.7%	63%
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	35%	6%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502	6h 01m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 23m	91%	73%
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON