Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3490 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:45	IDA 15:37	18%	6%	0.6%	73%
AS 3423 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:50	IDA 22:39	19%	7%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → IDA 10:43DL 3944 · flown by SkyWest	4h 13m	96%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → IDA 14:36DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	96%	88%
Alaska Details →	SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon	2h 53m Portland	PDX 10:30 → IDA 13:06AS 3013 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	100%	84%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	3h 02m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 25m	99%	84%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IDA 17:19UA 5322 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	95%	78%
United Details →	SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351	2h 38m Denver	DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07UA 5989 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON