Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	IND 16:16	27%	4%	0.7%	79%
AS 624 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:39	IND 05:44	29%	5%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic	8h 48m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	97%	84%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:43 → IND 14:16UA 1522	6h 16m	95%	83%
United Details →	SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 16:44 → IND 19:01UA 3418 · flown by Republic	9h 01m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	9h 42m	98%	81%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → ORD 16:53AA 2523	3h 54m Chicago	ORD 20:47 → IND 23:06AA 4594 · flown by Republic	9h 44m	94%	81%
American Details →	SEA 08:20 → PHL 16:42AA 3219	1h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic	9h 25m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → IND 17:22DL 3126	8h 22m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	50m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → IND 20:13UA 3455 · flown by Republic	6h 21m	65%	53%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 28m	57%	45%
Southwest Details →	SEA 14:35 → DEN 18:20WN 3617	55m Denver	DEN 19:15 → IND 23:50WN 1211	6h 15m	59%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON