tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3362 at 08:11, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3362 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 08:11 JAC 11:20 14% 5% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 45m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 15:55 → JAC 17:00DL 417 6h 30m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:45DL 1120 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 06:00 → LAX 08:44UA 1692 1h 44m Los Angeles LAX 10:28 → JAC 13:48UA 2110 6h 48m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 2h 43m Denver DEN 19:25 → JAC 20:58UA 1306 7h 08m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 7h 57m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → JAC 20:29DL 3925 · flown by SkyWest 7h 24m 90% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON