Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 429 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 429 SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 264 SEA 22:19 → JFK 06:39 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	JFK 15:49	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:00	JFK 15:29	13%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 461 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	JFK 00:21	23%	6%	0.8%	53%
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	23%	5%	0.9%	86%
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	23%	8%	0.8%	74%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:29	JFK 17:55	26%	5%	0.8%	76%
AS 22 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	JFK 07:38	29%	4%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:02	JFK 22:29	35%	8%	0.8%	63%
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:19	JFK 06:39	35%	12%	1.1%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 19:50 → SLC 22:55DL 1239	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	7h 28m	77%	66%
Alaska Details →	SEA 08:45 → PDX 09:49AS 3132 · flown by SkyWest	58m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	7h 38m	76%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON