Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 61 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 61 SEA 07:08 → JNU 08:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 435 SEA 13:43 → JNU 15:17 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 61 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:08	JNU 08:44	22%	3%	1.2%	86%
DL 2169 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:50	JNU 18:26	24%	6%	0.9%	83%
AS 71 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:23	JNU 22:55	29%	5%	1.0%	72%
AS 208 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:56	JNU 11:32	32%	5%	1.2%	75%
AS 1559 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:50	JNU 21:22	32%	6%	1.0%	73%
AS 209 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:24	JNU 12:56	34%	5%	1.1%	75%
AS 435 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:43	JNU 15:17	34%	5%	1.2%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON