Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 340 SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 204 SEA 11:27 → KOA 14:35 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 340 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	KOA 17:35	21%	7%	0.9%	78%
AS 238 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	KOA 19:05	24%	5%	0.8%	77%
AS 200 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:59	KOA 22:10	25%	5%	1.0%	76%
AS 204 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:27	KOA 14:35	27%	5%	0.8%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 08:05 → OGG 11:19AS 245	1h 41m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	8h 31m	95%	72%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:30 → HNL 16:34AS 899	2h 11m Honolulu	HNL 18:45 → KOA 19:31AS 1168	9h 01m	91%	69%
Alaska Details →	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	1h 47m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	8h 30m	89%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON