Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2922 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 2922 SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2267 SEA 17:35 → LAS 20:15 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	10%	3%	0.8%	92%
WN 2175 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 07:30	LAS 10:05	14%	3%	0.5%	85%
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	LAS 10:29	17%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	19%	4%	0.8%	85%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:05	LAS 13:42	22%	5%	0.8%	82%
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	28%	9%	0.8%	78%
DL 2949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:34	LAS 23:10	28%	9%	0.9%	81%
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	LAS 14:16	31%	6%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AS 704 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:25	LAS 23:05	35%	10%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
WN 3620 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 12:45	LAS 15:20	35%	8%	0.5%	65%
AS 600 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:18	LAS 17:53	37%	10%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
AS 478 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:32	LAS 21:08	38%	12%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
F9 2408 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 20:53	LAS 23:34	38%	16%	1.1%	68%
AS 1456 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:19	LAS 18:54	40%	11%	0.7%	67%
AS 658 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:00	LAS 15:35	40%	8%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 2267 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 17:35	LAS 20:15	44%	13%	0.6%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON