Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1692 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1692 SEA 06:00 → LAX 08:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 492 SEA 17:10 → LAX 19:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1692 United Flight history →	SEA 06:00	LAX 08:44	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1628 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	LAX 10:05	10%	4%	0.7%	93%
AS 505 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	LAX 08:47	12%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2914 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:35	LAX 15:23	13%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 4896 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:00	LAX 10:02	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2769 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:05	LAX 12:55	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 6324 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:20	LAX 17:18	17%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	SEA 17:04	LAX 19:53	18%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 717 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:26	LAX 10:20	19%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:38	LAX 15:25	20%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 1367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:03	LAX 12:56	21%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 2830 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:51	22%	7%	0.7%	85%
DL 2854 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:25	LAX 23:15	23%	7%	0.7%	78%
F9 1178 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 10:34	LAX 13:34	25%	7%	1.0%	83%
DL 2512 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:46	LAX 00:33	26%	8%	0.7%	70%
AS 696 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	LAX 16:25	26%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 2861 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	LAX 20:13	27%	7%	0.7%	76%
AS 1300 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	LAX 18:44	27%	7%	0.7%	77%
AS 487 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:15	LAX 14:01	27%	5%	0.7%	57%
AS 524 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:10	LAX 21:00	29%	8%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
AS 1390 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:18	LAX 00:05	30%	7%	0.7%	72%
AS 492 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:10	LAX 19:55	30%	7%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON