Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 345 SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 258 SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 345 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:50	LIH 18:58	25%	7%	0.7%	76%
AS 237 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:13	LIH 21:25	27%	6%	0.7%	76%
AS 258 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:28	LIH 14:40	31%	6%	0.6%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:55 → HNL 14:04AS 626	2h 17m Honolulu	HNL 16:21 → LIH 17:02AS 1113	9h 07m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:30 → HNL 16:34AS 899	2h 16m Honolulu	HNL 18:50 → LIH 19:31AS 1153	9h 01m	91%	67%
Southwest Details →	SEA 10:25 → OAK 12:35WN 1713	1h 10m Oakland	OAK 13:45 → LIH 16:10WN 3058	8h 45m	89%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON