Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 418 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 418 SEA 07:48 → MCI 13:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2256 SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 418 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	MCI 13:21	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 564 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:27	MCI 23:59	27%	6%	0.6%	77%
AS 497 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:30	MCI 19:01	31%	6%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
DL 2256 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	MCI 23:00	33%	9%	0.7%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SEA 07:50 → DEN 11:25WN 3397	1h 05m Denver	DEN 12:30 → MCI 15:05WN 351	5h 15m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON