Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 394 SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 420 SEA 09:47 → MCO 18:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 394 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:33	MCO 06:16	22%	4%	10.0%	87%
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:51	MCO 17:35	23%	7%	15.6%	75%
DL 448 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	MCO 07:40	24%	5%	4.4%	85%
AS 295 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:42	MCO 16:26	25%	5%	14.9%	71%
AS 420 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:47	MCO 18:30	29%	6%	15.0%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 27m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	7h 59m	96%	67%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MCO 15:55WN 1339	7h 40m	97%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON