Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 506 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 506 SEA 08:09 → MIA 17:16 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 654 SEA 12:56 → MIA 21:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:09	MIA 17:16	21%	6%	1.2%	80%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	MIA 17:17	27%	7%	1.0%	80%
AA 1471 American Flight history →	SEA 20:45	MIA 05:37	29%	8%	1.3%	74%
AA 654 American Flight history →	SEA 12:56	MIA 21:55	32%	9%	1.1%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 41m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 30m	91%	71%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 26m Denver	DEN 10:09 → MIA 16:16UA 1496	8h 16m	99%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON