tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 507 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:06 MKE 14:01 16% 3% 0.6% 92%
AS 307 Alaska Flight history → SEA 18:09 MKE 23:59 25% 6% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836 6h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 7h 04m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → MKE 19:31DL 4464 · flown by SkyWest 8h 26m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941 2h 43m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest 7h 36m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615 1h 25m Denver DEN 10:15 → MKE 13:40WN 1626 6h 25m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 9h 57m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 9h 40m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 08m Detroit DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343 8h 32m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → MKE 23:34AA 1234 7h 37m 74% 55%
UnitedDetails → SEA 13:55 → ORD 20:21UA 2101 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MKE 22:29UA 5362 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 71% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON