tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2129 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 15:20 MRY 17:42 13% 4% 0.0% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 06:00 → LAX 08:44UA 1692 1h 37m Los Angeles LAX 10:21 → MRY 11:42UA 5241 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest 8h 10m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 16:45 → SAN 19:36AS 1348 2h 50m San Diego SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:20 → PHX 18:21AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Phoenix PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:30 → MRY 21:10UA 1371 8h 20m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 07:26 → SAN 10:23AS 1471 2h 30m San Diego SAN 12:53 → MRY 14:28AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:15 → SFO 07:35UA 5676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 5h 55m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:07 → PHX 14:10AA 3793 · flown by Envoy 2h 26m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884 7h 21m 96% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 46m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 5h 49m 63% 52%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:29 → SFO 12:47UA 1482 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → MRY 14:55UA 5738 · flown by SkyWest 4h 26m 71% 49%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:00 → SFO 09:18UA 1578 47m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 4h 10m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON