Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3101 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Safest bet that day AS 3101 SEA 08:05 → MSO 10:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 697 SEA 13:38 → MSO 16:09 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3101 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:05	MSO 10:42	20%	8%	0.6%	88%
AS 697 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	MSO 16:09	32%	5%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
AS 2154 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 20:30	MSO 22:55	23%	8%	0.0%	77%
AS 2123 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 16:54	MSO 19:19	30%	2%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON