Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 943 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 943 SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 527 SEA 13:38 → MSP 19:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 943 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:05	MSP 11:24	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 536 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:05	MSP 14:24	13%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 941 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:05	MSP 17:37	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:35	MSP 13:57	17%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 942 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	MSP 19:54	17%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 953 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:59	MSP 05:15	18%	4%	0.8%	91%
DL 949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:05	MSP 23:30	20%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 509 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:51	MSP 17:19	23%	5%	0.6%	86%
AS 386 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:40	MSP 23:59	25%	6%	0.7%	82%
AS 527 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	MSP 19:00	29%	5%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON