tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 568 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:37 MSY 16:16 27% 5% 0.7% 81%
AS 490 Alaska Flight history → SEA 23:13 MSY 05:49 29% 5% 0.8% 82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 07m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 6h 17m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 20m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 47m Houston IAH 15:08 → MSY 16:27UA 1493 9h 27m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 3h 00m Chicago MDW 14:25 → MSY 16:40WN 3743 9h 10m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MSY 14:12AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 7h 07m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 1h 37m Detroit DTW 14:19 → MSY 15:49DL 1652 8h 19m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 57m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 12:08 → MSY 18:33UA 246 7h 48m 66% 47%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:26 → MSY 19:03AA 2158 6h 41m 68% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404 1h 00m Dallas DAL 22:00 → MSY 23:30WN 1370 6h 25m 66% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON