Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 266 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 266 SEA 06:15 → OAK 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 706 SEA 17:25 → OAK 19:33 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 266 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 06:15	OAK 08:25	4%	1%	0.6%	100%
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:12	OAK 09:26	15%	3%	0.8%	92%
WN 1713 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 10:25	OAK 12:35	22%	6%	0.6%	50%
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 16:55	OAK 19:10	31%	11%	0.6%	65%
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:41	OAK 13:59	33%	7%	0.8%	73%
WN 2890 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	OAK 22:40	33%	13%	0.6%	34%
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:25	OAK 19:33	36%	10%	0.8%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON