Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 344 at 14:59 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 344 SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 929 SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 344 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:59	OGG 17:56	16%	6%	0.8%	87%
AS 245 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:05	OGG 11:19	22%	6%	0.7%	82%
AS 202 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:59	OGG 22:07	24%	7%	0.7%	83%
AS 223 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:53	OGG 16:59	26%	6%	0.6%	80%
AS 929 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:15	OGG 13:19	29%	7%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SEA 10:25 → OAK 12:35WN 1713	1h 20m Oakland	OAK 13:55 → OGG 16:10WN 3060	8h 45m	95%	70%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:30 → HNL 16:34AS 899	1h 53m Honolulu	HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186	8h 38m	88%	67%
Alaska Details →	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	1h 44m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:41AS 1216	8h 21m	89%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON