Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 12:50, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 405 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	OKC 13:57	19%	3%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
AS 553 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:24	OKC 23:59	32%	5%	0.7%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:45DL 1120	3h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → OKC 23:52DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest	8h 22m	98%	88%
American Details →	SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → OKC 10:37AA 3805 · flown by Envoy	7h 53m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → OKC 17:03DL 3882 · flown by SkyWest	7h 48m	96%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	99%	87%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	3h 04m Houston	IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa	9h 10m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 11:00 → OKC 15:10WN 3309	6h 40m	100%	84%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748	3h 14m Houston	IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa	9h 15m	99%	84%
United Details →	SEA 11:55 → IAH 18:35UA 2293	3h 00m Houston	IAH 21:35 → OKC 23:08UA 5281 · flown by SkyWest	9h 13m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 22:10 → OKC 23:15WN 198	6h 10m	70%	47%
Southwest Details →	SEA 17:35 → LAS 20:15WN 2267	50m Las Vegas	LAS 21:05 → OKC 01:35 +1WN 4160	6h 00m	49%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON