tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 312 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:03 OMA 14:16 16% 3% 0.6% 87%
AS 556 Alaska Flight history → SEA 18:47 OMA 23:59 22% 5% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:45DL 1120 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 20:40 → OMA 23:58DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest 8h 28m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest 7h 36m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 2h 41m Detroit DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest 9h 08m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922 3h 54m Chicago ORD 16:06 → OMA 17:56AA 4724 · flown by Republic 9h 56m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 26m Denver DEN 10:09 → OMA 12:42UA 361 5h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 18m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 9h 40m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 11:02 → DEN 14:51UA 757 47m Denver DEN 15:38 → OMA 18:19UA 5251 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 65% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:35 → DEN 18:20WN 3617 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:20 → OMA 21:55WN 1659 5h 20m 62% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 17:35 → LAS 20:15WN 2267 50m Las Vegas LAS 21:05 → OMA 01:50 +1WN 4587 6h 15m 49% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON