Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2922 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2922 SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 410 SEA 13:10 → ORD 19:21 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2922 American Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ORD 12:12	7%	4%	0.7%	91%
AS 578 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ORD 12:03	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	13%	6%	0.8%	85%
AS 328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:17	ORD 06:20	14%	3%	0.8%	83%
UA 747 United Flight history →	SEA 23:11	ORD 05:18	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 2881 American Flight history →	SEA 23:56	ORD 06:02	19%	6%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
UA 1503 United Flight history →	SEA 17:15	ORD 23:22	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	22%	5%	0.6%	72%
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	23%	4%	0.7%	77%
AS 538 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:48	ORD 23:59	25%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 2523 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	ORD 16:53	25%	7%	0.7%	74%
AA 2524 American Flight history →	SEA 15:28	ORD 22:00	25%	7%	0.7%	60%
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ORD 16:43	26%	7%	0.7%	72%
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	26%	8%	0.7%	76%
UA 2101 United Flight history →	SEA 13:55	ORD 20:21	28%	6%	0.6%	65%
AS 429 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:29	ORD 16:44	32%	5%	0.7%	56%
AS 346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:29	ORD 17:38	33%	6%	0.7%	28%
AA 2520 American Flight history →	SEA 14:09	ORD 20:45	33%	8%	0.7%	46%
AS 410 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:10	ORD 19:21	35%	6%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536	56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:20 → ORD 16:59DL 1306	5h 54m	84%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON