Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3953 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 3953 SEA 07:30 → PDX 08:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1457 SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3953 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:30	PDX 08:40	12%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3818 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:30	PDX 10:35	16%	4%	0.6%	91%
AS 3132 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:45	PDX 09:49	16%	4%	0.6%	92%
AS 3090 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:14	PDX 11:21	16%	5%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
DL 3802 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:35	PDX 11:41	19%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 4062 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:37	PDX 14:48	19%	6%	0.6%	85%
AS 3204 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:45	PDX 14:48	20%	6%	0.6%	88%
DL 3918 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:00	PDX 17:06	21%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 3913 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:59	PDX 22:00	21%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 3923 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 18:55	PDX 20:02	23%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 4472 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 22:50	PDX 23:54	26%	5%	0.9%	67%
AS 686 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:55	PDX 16:55	33%	6%	0.7%	73%
AS 498 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:28	PDX 22:25	34%	6%	0.8%	74%
AS 1457 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:29	PDX 23:30	34%	6%	0.9%	67%
AS 2432 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 06:42	PDX 07:37	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2377 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 23:26	PDX 00:22	14%	5%	4.5%	86%
AS 2387 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 20:25	PDX 21:22	17%	6%	0.0%	83%
AS 2372 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:22	PDX 20:17	18%	2%	0.0%	82%
AS 2302 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:59	PDX 18:56	25%	8%	0.0%	75%
AS 2181 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 12:05	PDX 13:06	40%	4%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON