Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1114 SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 442 SEA 08:28 → PHL 16:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1114 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	PHL 05:29	17%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 3219 American Flight history →	SEA 08:20	PHL 16:42	20%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 522 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:02	PHL 06:13	20%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 2534 American Flight history →	SEA 12:40	PHL 21:06	22%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 2522 American Flight history →	SEA 22:35	PHL 06:48	23%	4%	0.8%	86%
AS 442 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:28	PHL 16:43	25%	4%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	89%	77%
United Details →	SEA 13:00 → IAD 21:06UA 2131	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic	7h 20m	85%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	7h 24m	80%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON