Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3001 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3001 SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3354 SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3001 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 06:30	PHX 09:15	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	9%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	12%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 606 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:17	PHX 10:20	16%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 11:07	PHX 14:10	21%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	PHX 16:41	21%	6%	0.7%	82%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	PHX 14:59	21%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 3440 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 15:20	PHX 18:21	25%	6%	0.6%	69%
AS 593 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:59	PHX 13:01	26%	4%	0.6%	73%
DL 2447 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:30	PHX 23:33	26%	9%	0.8%	81%
AA 4035 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:15	PHX 21:18	26%	7%	0.7%	73%
DL 2698 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:30	PHX 21:29	28%	9%	0.8%	77%
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:55	PHX 19:53	30%	8%	0.6%	75%
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	31%	5%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
AS 1371 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:50	PHX 14:57	32%	5%	0.6%	67%
AS 644 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:50	PHX 23:49	32%	9%	0.7%	70%
AS 632 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PHX 22:53	33%	9%	0.7%	74%
WN 3623 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 11:10	PHX 14:05	36%	8%	0.6%	35%
WN 868 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 19:10	PHX 22:05	41%	16%	0.6%	54%
WN 3354 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 17:20	PHX 20:15	42%	13%	0.6%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON