tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:05, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 412 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:34 PIT 17:12 22% 4% 0.6% 78%
AS 77 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:37 PIT 06:10 29% 5% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 2h 10m Chicago MDW 13:35 → PIT 16:00WN 2866 7h 30m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 7h 16m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 8h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49DL 429 3h 40m New York JFK 19:29 → PIT 21:39DL 5795 · flown by Republic 11h 24m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SEA 13:00 → IAD 21:06UA 2131 1h 24m Dulles IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic 7h 36m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 9h 51m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:33 → PIT 14:19AA 2311 10h 35m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 21:17 → PIT 05:19 +1UA 2117 10h 46m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 13:55 → ORD 20:21UA 2101 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 71% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081 50m Chicago MDW 18:50 → PIT 21:15WN 4211 6h 30m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON