tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Palm Springs on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 692 Alaska Flight history → SEA 10:20 PSP 13:14 24% 6% 0.8% 77%
AS 3214 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 19:55 PSP 22:51 29% 8% 1.0% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:45DL 1120 4h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → PSP 21:34DL 4045 · flown by SkyWest 8h 04m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:00 → SMF 06:50WN 3629 55m Sacramento SMF 07:45 → PSP 09:15WN 2189 4h 15m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:15 → PSP 12:28UA 1294 7h 28m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 13:45 → PDX 14:48AS 3204 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Portland PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 1h 22m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → PSP 11:50AA 2330 5h 34m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:29 → SFO 12:47UA 1482 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 15:56 → PSP 17:46UA 5354 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 51m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 4h 53m 64% 48%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 12:12 → PSP 13:56UA 5212 · flown by SkyWest 5h 11m 69% 45%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:29 → SFO 12:47UA 1482 53m San Francisco SFO 13:40 → PSP 15:26UA 5312 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 63% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON