Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 489 SEA 15:55 → RDU 23:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 572 SEA 08:20 → RDU 16:31 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 489 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:55	RDU 23:55	23%	7%	0.8%	77%
AS 677 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:33	RDU 05:40	24%	4%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:20	RDU 16:31	24%	3%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	59m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:00 → RDU 15:25WN 1691	7h 10m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON