Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3079 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day AS 3079 SEA 09:10 → RNO 11:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 598 SEA 17:07 → RNO 18:54 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3079 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:10	RNO 11:03	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
AS 273 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:53	RNO 13:50	25%	5%	0.7%	84%
AS 736 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:52	RNO 22:40	29%	7%	0.7%	80%
AS 598 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:07	RNO 18:54	34%	7%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON