Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2508 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SEA 07:15 → SAN 10:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4910 SEA 14:25 → SAN 17:20 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SAN 10:11	13%	5%	0.9%	91%
AS 1361 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:21	SAN 09:10	16%	2%	0.9%	89%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:14	SAN 15:16	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SAN 12:39	20%	5%	0.9%	82%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:15	SAN 18:05	21%	7%	0.9%	84%
AS 1471 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:26	SAN 10:23	28%	5%	0.9%	72%
DL 2672 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:40	SAN 22:34	32%	8%	1.0%	75%
AS 1348 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:45	SAN 19:36	33%	10%	0.8%	60%
AS 467 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:07	SAN 13:05	34%	7%	0.8%	63%
AS 1432 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:23	SAN 17:17	34%	9%	0.8%	69%
AS 1346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:26	SAN 14:18	34%	8%	0.8%	55%
AS 1398 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:15	SAN 23:11	37%	9%	0.9%	64%
AS 336 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:06	SAN 22:07	38%	10%	0.9%	29%
AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:53	SAN 20:49	38%	10%	0.9%	45%
WN 4910 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 14:25	SAN 17:20	38%	12%	0.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON