tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 494 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:38 SAT 15:46 25% 5% 0.6% 76%
AS 520 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:58 SAT 05:00 27% 7% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 9h 08m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 6h 06m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986 6h 40m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 06m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 10m Houston IAH 14:31 → SAT 15:39UA 1819 8h 39m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 3h 57m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 9h 05m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 13:25 → SAT 17:14DL 2680 7h 59m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922 2h 47m Chicago ORD 14:59 → SAT 17:59AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 9h 59m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 50m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → SAT 00:29 +1UA 6036 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 63% 51%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 48m Atlanta ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222 8h 20m 59% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15WN 3354 50m Phoenix PHX 21:05 → SAT 01:20 +1WN 3328 6h 00m 51% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON