tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 400 at 16:06, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 400 Alaska Flight history → SEA 16:06 SBA 18:38 24% 6% 1.2% 76%
AS 2142 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 07:40 SBA 10:14 16% 0% 0.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 23m 100% 89%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 13:45 → PDX 14:48AS 3204 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 6h 19m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:00 → SMF 06:50WN 3629 55m Sacramento SMF 07:45 → SBA 09:00WN 3601 4h 00m 93% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 17:04 → LAX 19:53UA 1730 2h 51m Los Angeles LAX 22:44 → SBA 23:44UA 4796 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 95% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 16:45 → SAN 19:36AS 1348 2h 56m San Diego SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon 6h 59m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 7h 12m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 46m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 63% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 15:55 → PDX 16:55AS 686 53m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 4h 09m 57% 50%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:29 → SFO 12:47UA 1482 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 4h 48m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON