Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5676 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 5676 SEA 05:15 → SFO 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 528 SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5676 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 05:15	SFO 07:35	7%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 2635 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:39	SFO 23:59	24%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:30	SFO 16:49	26%	13%	0.7%	71%
UA 2164 United Flight history →	SEA 17:20	SFO 19:37	27%	9%	0.6%	43%
DL 2870 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	SFO 09:38	27%	11%	0.8%	36%
UA 2866 United Flight history →	SEA 15:33	SFO 17:47	28%	10%	0.6%	56%
UA 1578 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	SFO 09:18	29%	8%	0.6%	11%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SFO 12:04	29%	10%	0.8%	64%
UA 1482 United Flight history →	SEA 10:29	SFO 12:47	31%	8%	0.6%	71%
AS 1385 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:36	SFO 18:48	31%	11%	0.8%	71%
UA 737 United Flight history →	SEA 13:30	SFO 15:48	32%	10%	0.6%	56%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SFO 20:16	32%	11%	0.7%	65%
AS 725 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	SFO 09:20	33%	9%	0.8%	52%
AS 791 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:36	SFO 19:52	34%	11%	0.8%	28%
AS 655 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:42	SFO 14:04	34%	10%	0.8%	70%
UA 2241 United Flight history →	SEA 19:05	SFO 21:21	36%	12%	0.6%	22%
UA 2831 United Flight history →	SEA 08:45	SFO 11:03	37%	10%	0.6%	33%
AS 590 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:42	SFO 22:55	41%	12%	0.8%	57%
AS 680 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:20	SFO 15:31	42%	12%	0.9%	69%worse than usual
AS 628 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:42	SFO 21:54	42%	15%	0.8%	12%
AS 619 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:36	SFO 20:48	42%	15%	0.8%	29%
AS 528 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:53	SFO 11:09	47%	15%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON