Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 633 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:35	SIT 13:10	31%	5%	1.3%	80%worse than usual
AS 91 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:18	SIT 22:44	31%	5%	0.9%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sitka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sitka is 1 h behind Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SEA 13:54 → KTN 15:02AS 92	2h 37m Ketchikan	KTN 17:39 → SIT 18:32AS 67	5h 38m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:08 → JNU 08:44AS 61	1h 11m Juneau	JNU 09:55 → SIT 10:40AS 62	4h 32m	85%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SEA 15:37 → KTN 16:43AS 67	56m Ketchikan	KTN 17:39 → SIT 18:32AS 67	3h 55m	67%	49%
Alaska Details →	SEA 19:50 → JNU 21:22AS 1559	56m Juneau	JNU 22:18 → SIT 22:59AS 70	4h 09m	59%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON