Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3626 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3626 SEA 06:45 → SJC 08:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2040 SEA 20:10 → SJC 22:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3626 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 06:45	SJC 08:55	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
AS 1448 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:07	SJC 09:23	10%	3%	0.8%	98%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	14%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:45	SJC 14:15	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 3956 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:30	SJC 22:48	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SJC 20:14	17%	4%	0.6%	87%
AS 1366 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:18	SJC 16:32	24%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 1310 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:06	SJC 22:21	25%	8%	0.7%	80%
WN 4960 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 13:30	SJC 15:55	26%	6%	0.6%	35%
AS 523 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:43	SJC 23:59	28%	6%	0.7%	57%
AS 539 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:45	SJC 20:00	28%	7%	0.7%	79%
AS 335 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:08	SJC 13:20	30%	4%	0.8%	69%
AS 319 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:42	SJC 17:53	30%	7%	0.8%	51%
WN 2040 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 20:10	SJC 22:30	32%	10%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON