Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3999 SEA 13:54 → SNA 16:55 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	8%	1%	0.7%	92%
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	18%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 3966 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:40	SNA 10:41	20%	6%	0.6%	73%
DL 3932 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:35	SNA 22:30	21%	4%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
DL 952 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:06	SNA 13:10	21%	5%	0.8%	73%
AS 631 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:10	SNA 22:01	22%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 472 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:29	SNA 20:17	22%	4%	0.7%	87%
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	23%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:49	SNA 16:41	24%	3%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AS 1551 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:08	SNA 17:56	26%	4%	0.7%	69%
DL 2318 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:00	SNA 17:47	26%	7%	0.8%	81%
DL 3999 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:54	SNA 16:55	27%	6%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON