Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 618 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day AS 618 SEA 07:55 → STL 13:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 647 SEA 13:06 → STL 18:57 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 618 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:55	STL 13:52	16%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 3632 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 09:00	STL 14:50	17%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 615 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:04	STL 23:59	23%	6%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AS 647 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:06	STL 18:57	27%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	5h 42m	89%	77%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536	51m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → STL 16:46DL 3185	5h 41m	79%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON