Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1321 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:54	STS 11:58	17%	3%	1.1%	83%
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:44	STS 22:51	25%	8%	1.4%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon	3h 08m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 44m	100%	91%
Alaska Details →	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	2h 49m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SEA 10:14 → PDX 11:21AS 3090 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:50 → ONT 16:30AS 571	2h 13m Ontario	ONT 18:43 → STS 20:14AS 3086 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26AS 699	2h 22m Santa Ana	SNA 11:48 → STS 13:37AS 3467 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	SEA 11:15 → LAX 14:01AS 487	2h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 17:00 → STS 18:43AS 3476 · flown by SkyWest	7h 28m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	SEA 09:43 → BUR 12:23AS 426	2h 56m Burbank	BUR 15:19 → STS 16:55AS 3093 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:49 → SNA 16:41AS 773	2h 33m Santa Ana	SNA 19:14 → STS 21:01AS 3432 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SEA 08:45 → PDX 09:49AS 3132 · flown by SkyWest	56m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	3h 41m	68%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON