Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 358 SEA 11:45 → TPA 20:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 639 SEA 21:18 → TPA 05:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	TPA 20:19	26%	8%	13.3%	79%
AS 262 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:21	TPA 17:51	26%	6%	15.4%	69%
AS 639 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:18	TPA 05:48	27%	5%	4.7%	84%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 14m	93%	67%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 15m Denver	DEN 10:05 → TPA 15:45WN 3560	7h 30m	97%	67%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748	1h 29m Houston	IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501	8h 12m	98%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON