tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2217 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 11:52 TUL 17:32 25% 8% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 21m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 7h 31m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 11:55 → IAH 18:35UA 2293 3h 07m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 9h 20m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:20 → TUL 13:05WN 1762 5h 50m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333 2h 33m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 14m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 9h 15m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 10h 04m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 3h 27m Phoenix PHX 12:45 → TUL 17:09AA 3826 · flown by Envoy 8h 53m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 13:55 → ORD 20:21UA 2101 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → TUL 23:25UA 1658 7h 30m 71% 59%
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24AA 757 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 6h 26m 74% 54%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404 55m Dallas DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:05WN 1419 6h 00m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON