Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3680 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 3680 SEA 08:25 → TUS 11:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 648 SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3680 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:25	TUS 11:47	16%	5%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
AS 3225 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:45	TUS 21:05	24%	6%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 648 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:19	TUS 13:31	28%	3%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON