Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1540 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1540 FLL 08:03 → SFO 11:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2426 MIA 20:35 → SFO 23:33 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1540 United Flight history →	FLL 08:03	SFO 11:01	9%	4%	0.7%	94%
B6 377 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:00	SFO 09:48	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 2565 American Flight history →	MIA 07:20	SFO 10:24	15%	5%	0.8%	93%
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	35%	18%	2.0%	62%
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 18:35	SFO 21:41	36%	13%	0.8%	22%
AA 2035 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	SFO 20:20	40%	14%	0.9%	53%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	SFO 22:34	40%	14%	1.0%	33%
AA 2426 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SFO 23:33	41%	13%	1.1%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 40m	98%	86%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 36m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882	8h 33m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON