Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1866 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1866 FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2930 MIA 14:50 → MDW 17:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1866 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:55	MDW 07:55	4%	1%	0.9%	96%
UA 752 United Flight history →	FLL 07:02	ORD 09:30	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1431 American Flight history →	MIA 08:28	ORD 10:59	10%	4%	1.0%	90%
WN 1869 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:15	MDW 12:15	14%	3%	0.8%	80%
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:43	ORD 12:15	18%	8%	1.4%	69%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	19%	8%	1.5%	82%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	20%	8%	1.5%	66%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	FLL 12:15	ORD 14:46	20%	8%	0.9%	73%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	MIA 12:22	ORD 14:58	21%	12%	2.0%	73%
AA 2323 American Flight history →	MIA 21:50	ORD 00:26	22%	8%	1.3%	63%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	22%	9%	1.1%	52%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	26%	10%	2.1%	71%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	PBI 13:05	ORD 15:29	26%	11%	1.7%	78%
AA 1881 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	ORD 23:30	28%	10%	1.5%	53%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	MIA 14:37	ORD 17:18	29%	14%	3.5%	67%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 19:21	ORD 22:01	29%	11%	1.3%	49%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	30%	11%	1.1%	60%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	31%	11%	0.9%	59%
UA 312 United Flight history →	PBI 15:58	ORD 18:32	32%	13%	4.6%	62%
UA 2311 United Flight history →	MIA 17:32	ORD 20:13	33%	10%	0.8%	34%
AA 2275 American Flight history →	PBI 18:54	ORD 21:30	35%	12%	5.0%	69%
AA 2440 American Flight history →	FLL 17:33	ORD 20:16	37%	11%	1.4%	32%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	37%	20%	6.3%	48%
WN 1870 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 18:20	MDW 20:25	40%	12%	1.1%	39%
WN 2930 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 14:50	MDW 17:00	42%	13%	3.3%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON