Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1232 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 1232 FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1232 American Flight history →	FLL 06:01	DFW 08:16	5%	2%	1.1%	92%
AA 1220 American Flight history →	PBI 07:04	DFW 09:15	6%	2%	1.2%	90%
AA 2558 American Flight history →	FLL 07:01	DFW 09:16	7%	2%	1.1%	92%
AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	9%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:35	DFW 10:44	15%	4%	0.9%	95%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	16%	5%	1.0%	83%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:20	DFW 08:37	16%	7%	1.1%	77%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	FLL 11:43	DFW 13:55	18%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 3081 American Flight history →	MIA 10:05	DFW 12:17	20%	6%	1.1%	77%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	21%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 3019 American Flight history →	MIA 12:18	DFW 14:39	21%	10%	1.9%	80%
WN 4819 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DAL 14:50	27%	8%	0.9%	28%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	FLL 15:04	DFW 17:22	27%	10%	1.4%	56%
B6 2182 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DFW 15:15	28%	12%	1.1%	64%
AA 2276 American Flight history →	PBI 14:14	DFW 16:28	28%	11%	5.8%	61%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	DFW 00:59	28%	10%	1.5%	55%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	MIA 14:29	DFW 16:51	29%	15%	2.2%	68%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	FLL 16:26	DFW 18:39	29%	10%	1.9%	37%
AA 3260 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	DFW 19:56	32%	12%	1.3%	59%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	FLL 17:29	DFW 19:49	32%	10%	2.3%	44%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	PBI 18:44	DFW 21:00	32%	12%	5.5%	51%
AA 1199 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DFW 17:50	33%	15%	2.7%	57%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	DFW 21:45	34%	11%	1.5%	58%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	FLL 19:11	DFW 21:23	34%	9%	2.9%	30%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	MIA 16:39	DFW 19:04	34%	14%	1.5%	61%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	41%	14%	5.0%	68%
WN 1374 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 17:00	DAL 19:00	42%	12%	0.8%	54%
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:50	DFW 21:06	51%	16%	2.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON