Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2314 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 2314 FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4583 FLL 20:10 → HOU 21:45 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	6%	3%	0.8%	97%
WN 1861 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:00	HOU 06:30	7%	2%	1.9%	83%
UA 2606 United Flight history →	MIA 06:30	IAH 08:24	9%	4%	0.8%	100%
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
WN 2927 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 05:10	HOU 06:45	9%	3%	1.8%	81%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	11%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 603 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	IAH 08:50	12%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 1918 American Flight history →	MIA 08:38	IAH 10:29	15%	6%	0.9%	79%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	15%	6%	0.9%	84%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:30	IAH 08:24	16%	8%	1.3%	85%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	17%	8%	1.9%	87%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	FLL 19:13	IAH 21:09	19%	9%	1.6%	88%
UA 2724 United Flight history →	FLL 15:14	IAH 17:10	19%	10%	1.0%	78%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	21%	11%	1.4%	79%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:45	IAH 11:47	21%	7%	1.0%	81%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	28%	13%	1.1%	74%
AA 2541 American Flight history →	MIA 19:42	IAH 21:33	29%	15%	1.3%	65%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	IAH 23:59	30%	12%	1.1%	70%
UA 1752 United Flight history →	PBI 17:05	IAH 18:59	30%	14%	5.6%	68%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	31%	14%	1.3%	73%
AA 1931 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	IAH 17:22	33%	17%	4.7%	59%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	36%	13%	1.3%	49%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	36%	19%	5.2%	45%
WN 4230 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 17:35	HOU 19:15	43%	15%	1.6%	42%
WN 4583 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:10	HOU 21:45	47%	17%	2.3%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON