Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 800 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 800 FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2501 FLL 21:35 → LAX 23:58 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 800 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:53	LAX 10:05	8%	4%	1.0%	88%
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:25	LAX 08:39	13%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	14%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	16%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 843 American Flight history →	MIA 08:35	LAX 11:02	16%	5%	0.9%	90%
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	18%	5%	0.9%	82%
B6 1401 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	LAX 13:20	24%	8%	0.9%	69%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	27%	11%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AA 778 American Flight history →	MIA 14:25	LAX 16:52	31%	16%	3.9%	68%
AA 669 American Flight history →	MIA 22:20	LAX 00:48	32%	13%	0.8%	56%
AA 2953 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	LAX 19:58	33%	14%	0.9%	57%
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LAX 21:00	34%	15%	1.2%	72%
AA 3328 American Flight history →	MIA 20:10	LAX 22:41	35%	14%	1.1%	64%
AA 315 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	LAX 18:27	36%	14%	1.0%	74%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	36%	16%	2.9%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 15m Houston	HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391	6h 55m	97%	86%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 06m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383	7h 29m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON