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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 87 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2603 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 2603 FLL 06:55 → EWR 09:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 572 FLL 20:15 → LGA 23:14 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

UA 2603 United Flight history → FLL 06:55 EWR 09:59 4% 2% 1.1% 96%
UA 2158 United Flight history → PBI 06:00 EWR 08:54 4% 2% 1.1% 94%
DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 5% 2% 1.3% 90%
UA 2330 United Flight history → FLL 07:55 EWR 10:59 5% 3% 1.0% 96%
DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 09:57 5% 3% 1.4% 94%
B6 854 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 06:46 JFK 09:35 5% 3% 1.3% 90%
AA 1040 American Flight history → MIA 06:00 JFK 09:05 6% 2% 1.0% 90%
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 7% 2% 0.8% 93%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 7% 3% 0.9% 88%
DL 2532 Delta Flight history → PBI 07:20 LGA 10:10 7% 2% 1.4% 92%
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 06:25 LGA 09:24 7% 2% 1.1% 87%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:01 JFK 10:00 8% 3% 1.1% 95%
B6 1072 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:10 LGA 09:03 9% 3% 1.3% 92%
B6 2144 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 07:45 EWR 10:31 9% 3% 1.3% 67%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:48 EWR 11:54 10% 3% 0.9% 88%
AA 1051 American Flight history → MIA 08:22 JFK 11:30 10% 3% 0.9% 89%
B6 306 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:30 EWR 09:27 10% 3% 1.3% 85%
AA 3205 American Flight history → MIA 06:56 LGA 09:59 11% 3% 1.1% 90%
AA 1822 American Flight history → MIA 08:25 EWR 11:30 12% 4% 1.1% 86%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 08:15 LGA 11:16 12% 3% 1.1% 76%
B6 1062 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 08:00 LGA 10:46 12% 4% 1.3% 92%
AA 1052 American Flight history → MIA 09:55 JFK 13:04 13% 4% 0.9% 83%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:28 JFK 11:26 14% 5% 1.0% 72%
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 15% 8% 1.3% 90%
AA 1046 American Flight history → MIA 08:40 LGA 11:43 16% 4% 1.1% 77%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 17% 5% 1.4% 72%
DL 2526 Delta Flight history → PBI 10:44 LGA 13:33 18% 6% 1.7% 76%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:06 JFK 12:04 18% 7% 1.1% 64%
DL 1520 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:25 JFK 14:31 18% 6% 1.2% 85%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 18% 7% 1.5% 70%
B6 1154 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 10:44 JFK 13:34 18% 7% 1.8% 72%
AA 3256 American Flight history → MIA 09:56 LGA 12:59 19% 4% 1.1% 80%
UA 1197 United Flight history → PBI 11:04 EWR 14:00 19% 8% 1.3% 89%
DL 2346 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:29 LGA 14:34 19% 8% 1.3% 70%
UA 2080 United Flight history → MIA 11:12 EWR 14:23 20% 8% 1.0% 79%
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:46 EWR 15:50 21% 10% 1.1% 78%
AA 2490 American Flight history → FLL 12:04 LGA 15:04 22% 8% 1.2% 68%
DL 2623 Delta Flight history → PBI 11:59 JFK 14:54 23% 6% 2.6% 75%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 10:38 LGA 13:32 23% 8% 1.4% 83%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 24% 10% 1.5% 72%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 24% 11% 2.8% 59%
B6 602 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:57 JFK 14:54 24% 10% 1.3% 66%
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 25% 9% 1.5% 64%
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:52 EWR 18:59 26% 16% 1.5% 61%
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:24 EWR 20:35 26% 15% 2.0% 69%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 LGA 23:02 28% 11% 3.0% 62%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 28% 10% 1.7% 68%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:52 LGA 14:45 29% 12% 1.3% 58%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 20:40 EWR 23:59 29% 10% 1.3% 72%
AA 1823 American Flight history → MIA 13:31 EWR 16:39 29% 12% 2.8% 79%
AA 642 American Flight history → MIA 14:00 JFK 17:18 30% 13% 2.1% 71%
AA 3229 American Flight history → MIA 12:51 LGA 16:00 30% 11% 2.1% 47%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:30 EWR 14:29 31% 11% 1.8% 65%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history → PBI 15:18 LGA 18:19 31% 12% 9.2% 69%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 31% 13% 1.9% 73%
B6 1054 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 14:08 JFK 17:06 32% 13% 5.9% 87%worse than usual
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 32% 15% 3.4% 64%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 32% 12% 2.2% 72%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 32% 13% 1.8% 57%
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 32% 11% 1.4% 56%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:59 JFK 23:21 32% 11% 1.5% 53%
UA 353 United Flight history → PBI 13:12 EWR 16:13 33% 13% 1.4% 74%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history → PBI 15:20 LGA 18:22 33% 14% 6.2% 64%
DL 1638 Delta Flight history → PBI 19:59 JFK 22:59 34% 17% 4.2% 56%
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 35% 9% 1.6% 62%
AA 1202 American Flight history → MIA 16:03 JFK 19:15 35% 12% 1.4% 55%
UA 1187 United Flight history → PBI 19:30 EWR 22:30 35% 16% 3.6% 68%
AA 2054 American Flight history → MIA 19:00 LGA 22:05 35% 12% 1.6% 42%
AA 1922 American Flight history → MIA 18:33 JFK 21:45 35% 12% 1.4% 61%
UA 2691 United Flight history → MIA 17:22 EWR 20:37 36% 11% 1.3% 56%
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 36% 10% 1.8% 58%
AA 2945 American Flight history → MIA 15:22 LGA 18:29 37% 14% 2.9% 48%
AA 716 American Flight history → MIA 14:22 LGA 17:29 37% 15% 2.7% 54%
UA 1395 United Flight history → PBI 17:15 EWR 20:15 38% 18% 5.8% 61%
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 38% 12% 1.6% 46%
DL 2466 Delta Flight history → PBI 19:37 LGA 22:33 38% 15% 4.1% 50%
AA 3128 American Flight history → MIA 17:50 LGA 20:58 39% 12% 1.7% 38%
AA 952 American Flight history → MIA 16:25 LGA 19:29 40% 14% 1.6% 53%
AA 2808 American Flight history → FLL 17:49 LGA 20:49 41% 13% 2.2% 33%
B6 1802 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:35 JFK 21:39 43% 18% 2.4% 61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 43% 21% 4.1% 51%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 46% 21% 2.7% 57%
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 16:51 LGA 19:50 47% 17% 2.2% 74%worse than usual
B6 144 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 18:08 EWR 21:00 47% 17% 5.9% 74%worse than usual
B6 1962 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 18:30 LGA 21:18 48% 22% 5.4% 64%worse than usual
B6 1172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:35 LGA 21:35 51% 20% 2.5% 54%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:15 LGA 23:14 52% 20% 4.3% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON