tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5401 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:04 ABQ 12:44 11% 5% 0.6% 83%
UA 737 United Flight history → SFO 18:48 ABQ 22:25 19% 9% 0.5% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 10:01 → ABQ 11:45DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 4h 55m 98% 92%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 07:35 → ABQ 10:10WN 3318 4h 10m 97% 91%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ABQ 12:30WN 106 6h 00m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 14:10 → ABQ 15:54DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 90% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:20 → ABQ 12:40WN 170 6h 30m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 2h 59m Denver DEN 21:10 → ABQ 22:43UA 4761 · flown by SkyWest 7h 23m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:37UA 1402 6h 37m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 18:55 → PHX 21:00AA 2544 46m Phoenix PHX 21:46 → ABQ 23:59AA 3159 4h 04m 63% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:10 → DAL 20:50WN 1859 1h 00m Dallas DAL 21:50 → ABQ 22:40WN 1255 6h 30m 65% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON