Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 24–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5626 SFO 21:22 → ACV 22:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 4708 SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5626 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:22	ACV 22:50	24%	12%	5.1%	78%
UA 4695 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:35	ACV 23:59	24%	13%	4.3%	74%
UA 5480 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:31	ACV 18:03	30%	15%	3.5%	73%
UA 4708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:15	ACV 11:42	32%	19%	3.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON